
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: we’ve been measuring AI’s impact with the wrong instruments. Adoption metrics, GDP blips, and “AI usage” dashboards are rear view mirrors. If you want to see where the economy is actually headed, look at what models can do on real work today. That’s what GDPval measures, and the results should make every exec, policymaker, and operator sit up. (GDPval paper)
Quick roadmap:
- A contrarian take on AI’s “productivity paradox”
- What GDPval is and why it matters more than hype cycles
- The jaw droppers: speed, cost, and quality where models already rival humans
- Where models still fail and how simple scaffolding fixes move the needle
- The playbook for teams to capture value now without breaking things
- Why this reframes the future of work and your next budget cycle
The Bold Claim: We’re Misjudging AI’s Economic Impact
Measuring AI by “adoption rate” is like measuring electricity by the number of lightbulbs sold in 1900. Economic impact from general purpose tech lags because organizations need new processes, controls, and culture. GDPval sidesteps that lag by evaluating frontier models on actual, economically valuable tasks across the top nine U.S. GDP sectors, with 1,320 deliverables covering 44 occupations.